DECISION POINT: In a live $1-3 game a Middle Position player and the Hijack limp into the pot (note: open limping with very little raising is the standard at this table). You raise to $15 from the Button with Q♣J♣, the Small Blind calls, MP2 calls, and the Hijack folds. Action checks around and you bet $15 on the 9♦K♣2♠ flop. The Small Blind calls and MP2 raises to $40. Action is on you, what do you do here?

PRO ANSWER: We are playing in a passive $1-3 cash game where most players have around $300 effective stacks. There is a lot of open limping and very little raising going on. We are dealt QcJc on the Button 7 handed. The UTG player folds and both MP2 and the Hijack limp. The Cutoff folds to us and we’re faced with our first decision.

Our hand plays well multiway as a speculative hand but is also quite good heads up, in position for a raise. If you've observed that raising on the Button at your table is unlikely to thin the field to 2 or fewer opponents on the flop then limping behind can be quite a profitable play. However, at most lower stakes tables raising from the Button to thin the field with initiative is a very powerful play that will generate a greater profit in the long run.

We elect to raise to $15 here and get called by both the SB and original MP2 limper. The Hijack folds and we get to see a flop in position against the 2 remaining opponents. The flop is 9dKc2s and both players check.

In more passive games a small continuation bet makes a ton of sense here as it gives us a lot of options on the turn. If we do spike the ten and hit our inside straight we've already started building a pot for value. If we turn a flush draw we can potentially double barrel with a 12 out draw and continue to apply pressure. If we completely miss, our opponents may check the flop and we will have the option of a free river card. We choose to continuation bet $15, the Small Blind calls, and MP2 raises to $40.

Now there is $121 in the pot and we have to call $25 more. We only have a gutshot straight draw and a backdoor flush draw. The “at the table math” can get a little fuzzy here since the backdoor flush outs mean we potentially have to call a turn bet as well, but for simplicity at the table we can call this 5 outs.

Based on our estimate of 5 outs we are 10% to hit on the turn and 20% to hit by the river. Even with the assumption that we will be forced to fold on many river cards we need 9:1 pot odds, plus have implied odds that we are likely to get paid off if we hit, to break even on a $25 call. So in order to call $25 here we need to make $225 on average in the long run. There is already $121 in the pot, so the question we have to ask ourselves is: If we hit our draw, are we likely to make AT LEAST another $104 on the turn or river.

With our read that this is a passive table, MP2's range is likely to be quite narrow and strong here. This inside straight draw is somewhat well disguised and we will often have greater implied odds than flush draws. Many players in low stakes live cash games are less likely to see these types of draws and to accurately put you on a hand, particularly inexperienced opponents.

With $245 effective stacks, a $146 pot, and being in position on both players it seems quite likely we can make at least that much and often get stacks in when we hit, making this a pretty straightforward call.

Calling is the best play.