Trip Jacks on the River, what do you do here?
DECISION POINT: After betting the flop and turn with trips, you are first to act on the river on a four flush board in this Tournament. What do you do?
PRO ANSWER: Given remaining stacks we could turn our hand into a bluff and move all-in on the river. We can credibly represent a full house, which means our opponent’s river calling range of an all-in would often be be TT, JT, AJ or KQdd. We hold a J, which blocks a fair number of those hand combinations.
This type of bluff will often fold out KJ (better trips), QJ (a chop), hands with a single diamond (such as KdQx) and smaller diamond flushes (such as 89dd).
Given our J blocker, there are fewer combinations of hands that will call a river shove than will fold to a shove, making this a profitable spot to turn our hand into a bluff.
The downside of this bluff is that it's a significant portion of our stack when we are very deep.
Whether or not this type of bluff is worth it in this particular tournament spot can come down to an opportunity cost question. How big of an edge do we have at this table?
If we can reliably chip up in other ways at this table, we may not want to turn our hand into a bluff here given how many chips would be at risk. If that's the case, we can simply check this river and fold to a bet against most opponents.
Betting a small amount would allow our opponent to call with a variety of one card diamond flushes, while still folding out hands that we beat (such as J9 no diamond), so there's less value in that play.
The upside of betting is that we avoid inducing any bluffs from our opponent when we check with the intention of folding.
However, if we are going to bet, we should put maximum pressure on our opponent with the goal of folding out diamond flushes, straights, better trips and chops.
Moving all-in is the best play.
What would you do here?
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