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3bet call or 3bet shove

  • 111Jackhammr318 (Westside, CA)

Interesting spot here in a 1/2/3 cash game. I had just doubled up a short stack and the $100 on the table to buy in next hand (as we are recommended to play 100bb deep by LearnWPT). So, here is 60bb deep for this hand, and get QQ in the bb.

No information on the opener, besides they seem to be a competent recreational player. The bet sizing is larger than what has been the table standard, but this player has opened larger before, with open raises preflop ranging from 12-18. Usually when someone opens unusually large, they are playing a good hand that they hate getting "deep stacked" with. By default this is usually TT-QQ, AK. But sometimes this can be a premium, as other players like to bet big with big hands.

Question: If I 3x this is over my shoving threshold, so should I just ship it in?

Looks like this is a +eV ship if Villain is wider than 99+, AQ+, KQ...and villain only calls the shove with KK+...but it's a funky spot, against mid/low stakes players.

If, regardless of opening range, Villain only calls my shove with KK+...then using the fold equity calculator, I need Villain to fold 79% of their range to breakeven. That means that if they call with 12 combos of KK,AA, they need to have a full opening range of 60 combos to breakeven. So does villain have an opening range of 60 combos at 8bb? That would be a minimum opening range of TT+, AQ+. Its just a unique spot against a unique/polarized open raise sizing from this villain. I can't see folding, or 3betting less than a jam, but maybe a 2.2x raise? PokerSnowie opts for the pot raise $75...and then calling the 4bet jam from Villain, but I don't know if that is optimal in low stakes cash.

Your thoughts?


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NL Cash (2/3)

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