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How do I play an over pair when pot committed on the Turn?

  • donthomasj (Silver Spring, MD)

Cash: 2/5

Hero: CO, KdKh, $656 (131BB)

Villain, MP2, $880 (176BB)

Preflop: MP2 raises to $20, Hero 3-bets to $60, folds to MP2 who calls

Flop: (Pot $127; SPR 4.7; with $596 behind) Qd4h2s; MP2 donk bets $80; Hero raises to $240, MP2 calls

Turn: ($607 with $356 left behind): Tc; MP2 checks.

What is Hero's best Turn move?

My thinking:
With an overpair or top pair in this situation with a fairly low SPR, I'd think that 3 streets of value can be considered. There has already been a bet and a raise on the flop, leaving me one more bet for "third street of betting" in this hand.

I usually check the Turn as preflop aggressor when the board on the Turn is not that particularly coordinated, planning to call a River bet from Villain since I am under-representing my hand and hoping to incite a bluff. If the board is coordinated, I bet the Turn. This particular board is only slightly coordinated (the only hand it really hits in his range is QT, and I'd have expected him to bet his two pair if he hit). So, my plan here is to check and call a River bet, or bet the River if he checks

Or, should hero shove the turn?

If hero chooses to check the Turn, and if a King does not hit the river, should hero do the following?: check if he checks, and fold if he bets.

Is one of these plays more +EV in the long run than the other vs "the field"?

Does having less than a pot sized bet left behind play a role in which is the correct answer?

Does the fact that we already have two betting lines already played after the flop enter this decision as to whether it is best to check behind the Turn vs shoving?


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