Online Tournament: $44 entry for 2000 chips, rebuy (can do immediately, $44 for 2000), addon = $44 for 5000 additional chips
6 players left
Payout structure: $5705 for 1st, then $3651, $2282, $1826, $1369, $1141
20 minute levels, next level in 5 minutes = 10000/20000/2000
HERO, BB (A6o): 411804 chips after posting blind, 27BB
Villain, SB (over 109 hands, VPIP 21%, 10% PFR): 337364, 24BB
BTN: 163641, 11BB
CO: 175166, 12BB
HJ: 268192, 18BB
MP2 (tight player, played 4 of last 34 hands) : 209333, 14BB
My thoughts and questions …
In 5 minutes, blinds increase again, if I don’t make a play, I’ll be down to around 20BB, but there would be 3 short stacks at the table. I am not at all confident in my ICM thinking.
SB makes appropriate raise of additional 3BB raise. Most hands up to now at final table have not gone to show down, the ones that did generally knocked out players. SB has not shown any hands at the final table. Table has tightened up.
Arguments for calling: A6o seems like it is too good of a hand to fold. If I call rather than shove, I’ll commit less chips to pot, but then the SB and I would be very similar stack-wise if he wins a c-bet on the flop.Although, I’d have position on him, I will miss the flop most of the time and fold to a c-bet. I don’t think this is the best option.It is my least favorite.
Arguments for folding: I am chip leader and would still be so if I fold. Blinds going up in a few minutes should make several of the players more desperate to make plays, but also more apt to fold if I raise first in pots, especially vs middle stack players on each side of me. The SB is the closest stack in size to mine, if I shove all-in I’d be down to the shortest stack of 5.5BB. Opportunity costs with ICM may make folding a good option. Should I concentrate more on being first in pots as the big stack, and only shove/raise if way ahead of Villains?This is my next to favorite play.
Arguments for shoving: A shove would be just a little less than 5X the raise of the SB’s starting stack, ideal stack size for a reshove with ATC (any two cards) vs a wide range, and A6o is better than the average random reshoving hand.It seems that A6o is too good of a hand to fold BB vs SB. A6o flops horribly + the SB does c-bet a lot … so I’m apt to most likely lose more chips if I just call. Aggression is overall better in tournaments. With all the above information, Hero shoves.