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Is it a mistake to fold the next street after betting 1/3 the effective stack?

  • donthomasj (Silver Spring, MD)

Eric: I may have misunderstood something, so I want to bring it up. I could swear that I've heard "it is a mistake to fold post flop if you bet 33% the effective stack preflop." ... ie... trying to understand/explain the concept of pot commitment.

However, I played around with Flopzilla. I gave myself JTo vs a Villain range of PP, ABC, AXs; then I had Flopzilla show my river hand equity for flop shoves an a bunch of random flops.

If I were to bet 1/3 ES preflop and get one Villain, then there is approximately a pot sized bet post flop. If there is a shove on the flop, I need more than 33% equity (preferably more in a tournament). However, JTo has many flops that are in the realm of 13% - 25% equity vs this range.

So, please help me understand better pot commitment, and if I heard anything like I mentioned above, what exactly does it mean?

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