We were all instructed to call using the calling criteria

I wanted to start a discussion on this, since we often see opponents calling under different criteria, and to get a better understanding of the math behind it.

The calling criteria

1) speculative hand

2) 5% or less of effective stack or 7% if a pocket pair

3) multiway pot...either limp behind a limper or the 2nd caller of a pre-flop open

#1 Speculative Hand, pretty clear cut...suited connectors, suited 1gappers, suited 2gappers, suited Aces, pocket pairs

#2 The 5%(7%) rules

5%(7%) is based on:

a) the chance of flopping a big hand or draw

b) the % of time we get paid when we flop this big hand or draw...sometimes we get paid less, sometimes we lose to a bigger hand

How often do the following hands flop a draw? Using Flopzilla here are some specifics based on hand types

Full Range Suited Connector: 54s to JTs

Flops Two Pair or Better, 8 outs or more: 25% of time

Flops Big Hand or Draw: 3/1 odds

Full Range Suited 1Gapper: 53s to QTs

Flops Two Pair or Better, 8 outs or more: 22.5% of time

Flops Big Hand or Draw: 3.5/1 odds

Full Range Suited 2Gapper: 52s to KTs

Flops Two Pair or Better, 8 outs or more: 20% of time

Flops Big Hand or Draw: 4/1 odds

Suited Aces: A2s to AKs

Flops Two Pair or Better, 8 outs or more: 16% of time

Flops Big Hand or Draw: 5/1 odds

Pocket Pair: 22 to AA

Flops a Set, Full House, or Quads: 12% of the time

Flops Big Hand: 7/1 odds

As a whole, the Suited Specs:

Flops a Set, Full House, or Quads: 20% of the time

Flops Big Hand: 4/1 odds

Pretty interesting, is that there is a wide variance in speculative hands hitting flop...the full range suited connectors hit 25% of the time down to the suited aces hitting only 16% of the time.

Well, these are adjusted due to other factors, since each hand type has different vulnerabilities

Suited Specs are vulnerable:

1) Flush over flush possibilities

2) Two pair over two pair possiblities

3) Set beats Hero's two pair possibilities

4) Hero bets draw, draw never arrives...and Villain's don't fold

5) Trips or two pair beaten by Full House

6) Hero raised off of semi bluff

Suited Aces are less vulnerable but:

1) Hero bets draw, draw never arrives...and Villain's don't fold

2) Trips or two pair beaten by Full House

3) Hero bets draw, draw never arrives...and Villain's don't fold

4) Hero raised off of semi bluff

Pocket Pairs are even less vulnerable, but:

1) Set over Set

2) Bigger Hand beats hero's set (straights, flushes)

#3: Multiway

We follow multiway guidelines for the following main reasons:

1) By being the 3rd active player in the pot, it reduces the chance of a future acting Villain to squeeze Hero out of pot pre-flop

2) Post Flop, if the pot is multiway, our probability of getting paid when we hit is increased

4) The more multiway, and the narrower the range of opponents, the higher the implied odds

Well, Multiway can range from ideal multiway to not so ideal Multiway

1) Ideal is 1-3 opponents, with very narrow hand ranges

2) Not Ideal, 1 opponent with wide hand range

So the 5%(7%) rules is the probability of being able to continue on the flop, minus the other factors mentioned

+cEV calculation = (% of hitting big hand) - (vulnerabilities) - (multiway variabilities)

The 5% rule for suited specs is basically taking the 20% chance the spec will hit a big hand or draw, which is 4:1, and it is reduced to 19:1 due to vulnerability and multiway variabilities

The 7% rules for pocket pairs is basically taking the 12% chance the PP will hit a set, which is 7:1, and it is reduced to 13:1, due to vulnerability and multiway variabilities

I think it is a good idea to look at when these vulnerabilities and multiway variablities are reduced, in particular the multiway variabilities

For example:

1) If pre-flop aggressor is on a very narrow hand range

2) If table dynamics are passive, with low probability of squeezing, and 3betting

3) If Hero is closing the action

4) If stack sizes and SPR post flop will increase the chances that stacks will go in, or will increase or fold equity

Also:

5) We might have a speculative hand that performs better post-flop...Full Range Suited connectors flop an 25% of the time, which is 5% more than the average suited spec

6) Suited Aces aces are nut flushes and always make the best two pair, so they have much less vulnerability than other specs...

I think it is worth exploring common situations where Hero can call beyond 5%...

Pat