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Pre Flop Coin Toss Decision

  • mysteryplayer (NY, NY)

$1/$2 Full Ring Live Cash Game

Villain - middle position 1 raise to $15 ($205 behind after bet)

Hero – middle position 3 re-raise w/AKo to $45 ($300 behind after bet)

Folds back around to villain who 4-bets to $110 ($65 more to call)

Hero does not know villain and therefore, by default, narrowed this 4 betting range to QQ+, AQ+. Based on this range, hero thought, at best it was a coin toss and at worse was already beat (or was a chop). With villain having only $80 left in his stack, hero was either going all-in or folding. Is thinking going all-in versus calling correct? Should hero ever fold in this situation?

If calling and/or going all-in is correct, and assuming it is correct based on the pot odds/hand equity, can you please elaborate on why that is the case.

Here’s my confusion… If I call or go all-in, I am getting better pots odds (~2.1) versus my 1.1 hand equity so I get the math in terms of being correct to continue from a pure odds standpoint. However, what I am having a hard time wrapping my head around for some reason is that if it is 50/50, that means I have to be correct/win 1 out of every 2 times to be profitable, which is a much higher number than lets say a flush draw in which I only have to win 1 out of every 4 times to be correct/profitable. Also, with a flush draw, if I hit, I am a favorite to win. With 50/50, I’m not. What am confusing or not understanding?

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