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Set of Jacks on a coordinated flop

  • mcleary10902 (Carmel Indiana)
  • I was playing in a $1-$3 cash game and got dealt jh js in UTG2 at a 9 handed table. I raised to $20 (pretty standard raise for the table to thin the field). I got called from both the cutoff and button position players

Flop comes Kc Jc 9h

Having hit a set on a very coordinated board, I make a C bet for $45 and the cutoff player goes all in for his remaining $177. The button folds and I'm left to make a decision.

At the start of the hand, I was relatively deep with 166 BB and this opponent started with about 66 BB.

Given a highly coordinated flop, my opponents position and willingness to re-raise with both myself and another opponent potentially left to act, I'm now wanting to analyze the fact I made the call to understand if I made the right decision.

Mitigating his re-raise was the fact both he and the button player had been playing reasonably aggressive poker all night calling with a fairly wide range of hands and demonstrated a willingness to chase flushes and straights. Also, I factored in the impact of the board pairing giving me a full house. During the hand, I counted 9 outs but now in hindsight might want to discount that number to remove mabey a king as he could have been semi-bluffing with a Kx hand to put me to a big decision.

I'm roughly getting about 1.6 to 1 on my money so I need an EV of about 38% to call. If I just count my outs (assume the 9 I used in my head) I land on 36% so pretty close.

Later on, I plugged the scenario into poker cruncher to assess what kind of equity I had and by adding a variety of combinations (i.e. A lot of combos with Ax of clubs, Q 10, Kx etc...). It spits out an equity value well north of 38% and I have to really narrow the range to get down to 38%.

So, poker cruncher would seem to suggest this is a no-brainer and by using my potential outs with the rule of 4 since this is an all-in it's still pretty close to even and it's a cash game so the call would still seem to make sense.

I would welcome your thoughts on any and all flaws in my thinking






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