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Should I raise or call? evaluating fold equity , risk reward, and implied odds...

  • 111Jackhammr318 (Westside, CA)

8 handed

$1/$3

Folds to MP2

MP2 open to $12 with $900

CO $12 with $400

Hero $12 with Ac6c on button with ~$440

SB $12

BB $12

Pot $60

Flop:

Qc Kh 7c

SB check

BB check

MP2 $30

CO call

Hero $30/$120 pot odds

MP2 has been opening wide, 25% of hands and has 3bet wide showing down 50% hands

Hero calls with pot odds

SB fold

BB folds

Turn

Qc Kh 7c Td

Pot: $150

MP2 $80

Co fold

Hero?

I have a 12 out draw and by default would raise here.

I feel this player will not fold a majority of the time and on top of that a raise would be pot committing.

I feel implied odds are high in position

If I call my flush outs are fairly transparent but MP2 is capable of bluffing the scare draw as well.

I have 12 outs

I estimate its +cEv to call with about 3:1 pot odds, and feel I can get at less 1 bet more out of MP2 if I hit on the river, due to his tendency I have seen to bluff...and I am in position.

If I raise it would be at least 200 and would be likely have to be a shove of my remaining $400 into a $230 pot...

Higher risk reward....

Hero?

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