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Call or jam tipping point

  • Tom W (Ann Arbor, MI)

Hi Nick/Chewy/Rizen!

At the MGM National Harbor $50K guarantee on Sunday (all the money is in the top three), I had a massively insane run and this was really the only hand whereby I felt I missed an opportunity. This final table (filled with very strong players) had been going-on for nearly two levels without a bust-out and it was pretty straightforward (i.e., practically every hand would go fold, fold, open-raise/jam, everyone folds, next hand). Because of the play thus far and because of my stack size and the other stacks, I put this hand in my opening range from early position (maybe a bit wide but I was willing to call most expected re-shoves at this stack size with this holding). Anyway, once I C-Bet the nuts on the flop and villain called, I checked the turn feeling that villain would bet if he caught anything and also knowing that Villain was very capable of floating my C-Bet here and I was happy to let him attempt one steal on the turn with this pretty locked-up board. Now, once he did indeed bet, I was 50/50 to jam over-the-top and this decision point was the one that really killed me...I took a few seconds here to decide whether to just flat or jam. I finally went with a call because I felt (having played with Villain for some time before the final table) that he wasn't try to steal but actually had something reasonably strong (but not strong enough to call a turn check-raise jam with) and also because I believed that he felt I was drawing for a four-card flush and, therefore, if any non-club came I could check and he would jam (in actuality, I likely would have put in a very small bet to look like a blocker so that he might jam over it). As it was, a club came on the river (killing my action) and, after I bet, Villain was lamenting that I got there and folded. Anyway, I'd love to hear your thoughts on how you would have played this hand and maybe some thoughts on tipping points for when you think it is better to get it in now hoping for a call rather than taking the risk of a card coming that kills your action.

Thanks!

~Tom

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