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Does this overpair make a profitable call on the river

  • 111Jackhammr318 (Westside, CA)

Interesting spot in an online $.50/$1 9handed game

The Villain in the BB has fairly tight stats, with a 22/18 over 293 hands.

His BB defend is 26% over 23 hands, which seems on the tighter side, but the data is defending against all positions. 

I have questions on the flop, turn, and river. Both in line and sizing.

1) Flop: I flop a one card OESD on a rainbow board, with an overpair that is blocking the top pair combos in villain's range. I would estimate I have a slight equity advantage, but a polarization disadvantage, as Villain is going to have all sorts of combos of nut hands, and strong draws, as well as a bluffing range that could attack a c-bet. So I choose to check...but maybe a cbet is warranted here. I would guess a large sizing (running the PIO right now)

2) Turn: Once the top card pairs, BB leads out with a large bet. I can't see a fold here, as I have good equity against his semibluffs, and am drawing to the straight and the FH is BB does indeed have trips. 

3) River: This is where I consider an exploitative fold. I am guessing PIO is having TT and all overpairs in its BC range. However, against this sizing and a tighter villain, this could ratchet up the calling range for me here. Most of villains turn betting range would be happy to check/call here. The main bluffs could be hands like 68 or 67, but I think those may have checked the turn...and likely would have checked the river after betting turn.

I'll post PIO results next...probably with some node locking



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