An interesting hand from an event I played this past Sunday that I would love to get your feedback on.
9 handed
Final Table
10 paid:
9th: $480
8th: $560
7th: $720
6th: $970
5th: $1200
4th: $1800
3rd: $2600
2nd: $3500
1st: $5000
These are approximations, but pretty close to actual payouts…
There is a good chance there will be an ICM chop at some point in final table, as there is no trophy or ring at stake.
Seat 1: 200k
Seat 2: 200k
Seat 3: 250k
Seat 4: 135k
Seat 5: 150k
Seat 6: 220k (Hero)
Seat 7: 150k
Seat 8: 150k
Hand:
Blinds 2000/4000/500
Seat 4 in EP1 opens to 10k
Folds to Hero in MP1 and Hero 3bets with AsKd
I debate how much to raise…looking at EP1’s stack…she has about 135k
A 3bet to 25k would be about 20% of effective stack, a 3bet to 35-40k would put EP1 in a place of folding or shoving…
What is the best strategy here? Would it change with ICM considerations at this final table?
I raise to 35k…how would you size your bet here?
Folds back to EP1 who tanks then calls…
Pot: 80.5k
SPR: 1.2
I now realize I optimally would have bet 40-45k or maybe shoved to get the SPR ~1
Flop:
7d 6h 3s
EP1 tanks then checks
Hero?
Should I shove all flops here?
I place Villains range of
22-QQ, 33% KK, 33% AA, ATs-AKs, AJo-AKo, KQo, KQs, QJs, JTs, 50% QJo, 50% JTo
So my main question is would EP1 have played 89s, 78s, 67s, 56s
I think there is a small chance, but at this point, I would heavily discount, maybe 20% weighted
So basically I am behind the sets (9combos); the 2pairs (we will discount to 1combo) and the combo pair draws (discount to 1combo) and the straight (1 combo)
Also behind 99-QQ, and the 33% weighted KK, AA
I really feel EP1 would shove the 88-JJ here, so let’s discount from 24 to 12 combos
And then there are a ton of overcards about 60 combos
I decide to bet 35k…should I just shove?
In retrospect, I think a shove is the default play, but I believe this player is capable of slow playing a set, and capable of folding to a C-bet of 35k the same amount as if I shove 70k effective all in.
EP1 tanks then calls?
Turn: Kc
Villain insta-shoves.
I heavily weight Villain's range with Kx combos that have hit...
In retrospect, I played this well, and my read was spot on, but should I still shove the flop?
Should I value aggressive play (by shoving flop) over equity play (calling a turn shove) to reduce # of showdowns (and variance)?