9 handed
$2/$5
Hero in SB with KcKs and $500
EP limps
Folds to Hero in SB who raises to $30
Folds to EP who 3bets to $90 with $300 behind
Range of EP:
QQ+, AK+ (21 combos)
If Hero 4bets all in EP will only continue with KK+ (7 combos)
EP will fold 14/21 combos, or 67% of the time
67% of the time Hero wins $127
33% of the time Hero is called and the pot would be $390x2 or $787
Hero's equity when called is 23%
Hero's ev would be:
1) EP folds 67% x ($127 + $470) = 67% x $597 = $400
2) EP calls 33% x ( (23% x$780) + $110 left) = 33% x $289 = $95
Total equity = $499 or -$1
How about if Hero flats for $60?
This would be $60/$300 or 20% of effective, so not typical calling criteria
But hero would be calling not to set mine, but to keep Villain's range wide, and to check/call or call two streets for value, and fold to more aggression unless hand improves
Hero's range against Villain's range if Hero calls is
KK versus QQ+, AK+
Hero has 57% equity going to the flop with a pot of $180
Your thoughts?
If Villain's range is wider, say JJ+, AQs+, AK, then Hero's ev if Hero 4bets would be: (assuming Villain only continues with KK+)
1) EP folds 24/31 or 77.5% x ($127 + $470) = 77.5% x $597 = $462
2) EP calls 22.5% x ( (23% x$780) + $110 left) = 22.5% x $289 = $65
Total equity = $527 or +$27
So maybe if Villain's 3bet range is wider than QQ+, AK+ then 4bet shove...or if Villain's 4bet calling range is wider than KK+ then definitely shove.
Many games I play the 4bet calling range is KK+
Another case would be against a hyper aggressive player who has a wide 3bet range but a tight 4bet calling range...and is aggressive post flop with light holdings...
Your thoughts?
Pat