Here is an interesting hand I played against a LAG.
Villain is playing alot of hands, but the only really solid information I have is:
1) He applies pressure with a wide range by open shoving from LP when the remaining players are <15bb. He was called twice, once by a short stack in the BB (he showed Ks2s); and once when he open jammed into a 13bb stack from CO. The BB tank called and he showed J6o.
2) He also has opened higher than normal from LP by shoving or raising; with no resistance. This is a small sample of 3 orbits, but noticeable.
3) His 3bet frequency, and calling frequency seem more normal, as he is mainly wider when first in
4) I can assume his EP and MP1 ranges are wider than normal, but most of his RFI that is wider, has been from LP.
So, here I am, facing an all-in 6 players from the bubble, with AJo. Against a the field this would be a fold, as most of this field plays pretty snug from MP1 and earlier...near the bubble.
I ran in HRC and the results are:
I tightened up HRC's default range of Villain to:
A9s+,ATo+,KQ,66+, 75%KJo-KTo, 75% 55-44, 25% A2s-A5s, 25% 22-33, 25% KTs
With this range AJo is a +.19 ICM%eV call...so this is close to the breakeven range that I can call against; any tighter its a fold, any wider its a call.
The full calling range for BB against this 6bb open and this opening range is: 77+,AJ+
The main questions are:
1) Is Villain still wider from MP1?
2) Is this the best spot, or are the opponents going to over fold, making first in a better spot to utilize my chips