Cash, home game, 7 handed
$5/10
Hero ($1500, ES): ThTc on BTN vs BB caller
Preflop: Folded to Hero who raises to $40, SB folds, BB calls
Flop: (pot $85, SPR 18) 7d7c2s... BB checks, Hero bests $45 and BB calls
Turn: (pot $175) 2h hits the Turn... SB bets $100 ... what is Hero's move?
Hero folded: Reasoning, I'd put Villain on a range of A2s/A7s/88-JJ and 25% of the AA/KK/QQ combos. Could Villain also be bluffing with worse hands such as 33/44/55/66? ... sure, but I don't know Villain well enough, and I think those are much less likely. This game has been very easy with weak players, some who play literally 90% of their hands, but this particular player seems stronger than the others. There are better ways to get money at the table, so I fold... but then wondering afterwards if I could have been leaving money on the table with my overpair.
Other option that came to me at the moment = Call Villain's Turn bet for 2 streets of value with the intentions of folding to a River bet. However, I did not like the idea of doing this as all I could possibly win against would be a Turn bluff.
What do you think?
Don