2 Pair on the Turn, what do you do here?
DECISION POINT: In a Cash Game, 5 players call the Big Blind and you complete from the Small Blind with K♠5♣. The Big Blind checks. The Flop is A♠K♣5♠. You check, the Big Blind checks, the UTG player bets, a Middle Position player calls, and it folds around to you. You raise, and the Big Blind and UTG players fold. MP1 calls. The Turn is the 8♠. Action is on you, what do you do here?
PRO ANSWER: After the bet and call on the flop, check-raising is mandatory with our hand and the sizing of $70 is good. It sets up a turn jam or a smaller-sized turn bet at our discretion.
If we didn't have the K♠, we should definitely move all-in on this turn. With the K♠, it opens up the possibility of checking or betting smaller, since free cards don't hurt us as much.
However, we generally shouldn't check here. Many real world opponents check back the turn too frequently after calling a flop check-raise, so we lose value by checking the turn.
We also don't have to worry about adding some strong hands to our turn checking range in this spot, since we aren't likely to have many hands in that range at all. We won't check-raise this multiway flop with many marginal made hands or pure bluffs, so it's fine to always bet this turn with our hand.
As far as bet sizing, we make the most by betting smaller on the turn. Putting out the same bet ($70) will be a very profitable sizing. With this bet we leave a tiny bit of room for the illusion of fold equity on a shove by our opponent.
Betting the turn is the best play.
How would you play it?
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