6♠6♣ on the Flop, what do you do here?
DECISION POINT: After 3-betting against the Cutoff player's open raise, the player in the Big Blind cold calls our 3-bet. On the flop, they check to us. Should we continuation bet on the flop?
PRO ANSWER: In general, the profitability of continuation betting after missing the flop can be determined by the number of opponents seeing the flop and board texture. The fewer opponents and the drier the flop, the more likely a continuation bet will win the pot uncontested.
Against a single opponent, continuation betting will usually be profitable, even on coordinated boards. When one opponent sees the flop, it is simply unlikely that they have connected with the board.
However, certain opponent actions preflop can narrow their hand range. In this case, the Big Blind cold-called our 3-bet preflop. This generally indicates a more narrow hand range consisting of some medium to large pocket pairs as well as some broadway cards. That hand range connects very well with this specific flop.
Therefore, despite only having a single opponent to the flop, the probability that our opponent connected with the flop is higher than usual.
This makes continuation betting as a bluff less profitable. We should choose to not fire a continuation bet on the board and instead check behind and be willing to get away from our hand on the turn or river.
Checking is the best play.
What would you do here?
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