DECISION POINT: In a Tournament, UTG+1 (who you know to be a straightforward player) raises, the Hijack calls as do you with 6♣6♦. Three-ways to the 9♠8♣9♦ flop, UTG+1 c-bets, Hijack folds, and action is on you. What do you do here?
ANALYSIS: Bluff-raising will be the most profitable play against many opponents. Raising exploits the nut advantage that our range has against the early position opener. When Villain raises from EP, they have very few 9x or 8x hands in their range. This means that their postflop range is largely capped on this specific flop. Our range is not, since we have many 9x hands as an in-position caller.
That fact allows us to create more fold equity than usual on the flop when we exert aggression against our opponent’s c-bet. This raise will be extremely profitable against an opponent willing to fold an overpair to a single raise on the flop.
Ideally we would have a hand with some more backdoor equity when called (such as QcJc) for this type of play in general, but this is a good spot given our specific read on Villian (straightforward player) and the fact that is was 3-ways to the flop instead of heads-up.
The fact that it was multiway makes it that much easier for one of the callers to have a 9 from the c-bettor’s perspective and much more likely that they will fold a hand with significant equity.
Raising is the best play.
How would you play it?
Share your answer in the comments below!
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