7♠7♥ on the River, what do you do here?
DECISION POINT: In this hand we raised preflop with 7♠7♥, got 2 callers and we decided to continuation bet on the flop. After getting called on the flop by the player in the Big Blind, we chose to check behind on the turn. On the river, our opponent bets into us. Should we fold, call, or raise?
PRO ANSWER: Generally speaking, most one pair hands that you take to showdown after multiple postflop streets of betting should be top pair or better. Occasionally, one pair hands worse than top pair can have showdown value.
In this case, we are getting approximately 3-1 pot odds, which means our 77 must have around 25% or more equity for calling to show a profit. In other words, do we believe we can beat around 25% or more of the hands with which our opponent will take this overall line? If we do, then calling would be profitable.
Our opponent will often play this way with many Kx hands, some strong made hands like sets or two pair, and occasionally a missed straight draw. There are far more combinations of Kx hands and other stronger made hands than there are missed draws.
In addition, we hold two blocker cards to the flop straight draw (76), which makes them holding that hand even less likely. We generally have the best hand only around 15% of the time or less in this spot. Therefore calling is not profitable.
Since much of our opponent’s range consists of one pair hands, turning our 77 into a bluff and raising might be profitable. However, it’s difficult for us to credibly represent a big hand on this river after checking behind on the turn, especially given that we don’t have many 2x hands in our range. The best default option in this scenario is to simply fold our 77.
Folding is the best play.
What would you do here?
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