A♣4♣ on the Flop, what do you do here?
Decision Point: In a Tournament, the first Middle Position player calls and you call from the Hijack seat with A♣4♣. The Button calls, the Small Blind folds, and the Big Blind checks. The Flop comes A♥10♣10♦. The Big Blind checks, MP1 checks, and you check. The Button moves All-In. The Big Blind and MP1 fold. Action is on you, what do you do here?
Pro Answer: In this hand, we called preflop in a limped pot with a small suited Ace and flopped an Ace on a paired board. After checking the flop, the short stack player on the button moves all-in for around twice the pot.
When deciding whether or not to call, we should estimate our opponent’s range of hands with which they would take this action.
The range of hands they are value betting with consists of trips or at worst, another Ace. Against an Ace we are often losing and sometimes chopping. We do not beat any hands in their value range.
The question then becomes whether there are enough bluffs in their range to make calling profitable. Most opponents do not make pure bluffs into 3 opponents for their tournament life. If we have some historical information that this specific opponent makes bluffs in spots like this, then perhaps we could consider calling.
However, as a default, we should give overbets of the pot into multiple opponents credit for being value bets much more often than bluffs.
Since we do not beat any of their value range, folding is the best play.
How would you play it?
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