A♠A♦ vs an Overbet Lead, what do you do here?
DECISION POINT: In a live $1-2 Cash Game, a passive Under the Gun player limps into the pot and UTG+ 1 raises to $8. You 3-Bet to $30 from Hijack with A♠A♦. The passive UTG player calls, and the original raiser folds. On the 5♠6♠7♥ flop Villain bets $105 and action is on you. What do you do here?
PRO ANSWER: Given Villain’s cold call of the 3-bet after limping from UTG, we can assign them a somewhat capped range that includes many pocket pairs as well as medium strength suited broadway hands and connectors.This range connects very well with this board.
This fact, combined with the overbet lead from a passive player, does not bode well for most of our one pair hand range. We should simply fold many of our overpairs here, especially those with a limited ability to improve.
For example, all combinations of TT and most combos of JJ we should simply fold. Larger combos will be divided by whether or not they contain a spade. Any non-spade containing overpairs can hit the muck in this spot.
As a default, we should only continue here with QQ+ with a spade. Given that we hold AsAd, we should not fold to this bet despite this is a passive player with a likely narrow range.
The most profitable way to play this hand will be to call the flop. If Villain bets again and moves all-in, we should fold on many turn cards (certainly any 4, 8, or 9).
This is a very thin spot due to the likely range of Villain and this particular flop, but we probably need more compelling evidence on Villain to simply fold to one bet on the flop.
Calling is the best play.
How would you play it?
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