A♠J♣ Facing an All-In, what do you do here?
DECISION POINT: In a Tournament, an Under the Gun player limps into the pot. It folds to you in Middle Position, you raise with A♠J♣ and the UTG limper is the only caller. Flop comes A♣2♣4♦. Your opponent goes all-in and action is on you. What do you do here?
PRO ANSWER: Ranges for overbet lead shoves can sometimes be difficult to accurately assess, but there are a few key points that make this a clear decision.
Notable hands that beat us, such as AA, AK, and AQ are much less likely due to the preflop action. Flush draws and wheel aces with a gutshot are far more likely with this action.
Sets are certainly possible, but most opponents would not open-jam into the preflop aggressor with them. Even if that wasn't true, there are far more combos of hands we beat than beat us. Against any reasonable opponent preflop range you must call.
In this hand the SPR (stack to pot ratio) going to the flop is just over 2, which means that we should rarely fold good one pair hands. The stacks are just too shallow to get away from hands like this, even if Villain took a more balanced line when check-raising all-in.
Calling is the best play.
How would you play it?
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