A♠J♠ From Early Position, what do you do here?

AJ-from-Early-Position


DECISION POINT:
It is early in a live $5-10 cash game session and you are playing with tough opponents. You are dealt A♠J♠ from Early Position and raise to the table standard open of $30. It folds to the Button who just calls and both Blinds fold. The flop comes 9♣8♣Q♥ and action is on you. What do you do here?

PRO ANSWER: We are playing a $5-10 cash game with $1,000 effective stacks. It is early in the session so we have no significant reads but it seems like a tough table where players are playing well with no noticeable leaks.

We are dealt AsJs in the UTG seat and make a standard open for this game to $30. It folds around to the Button who flat calls and the Blinds fold. When a good player on the Button calls here they usually have a capped, condensed range that consists of lots of suited broadway cards and pocket pairs, with a few suited connectors and suited aces sprinkled in.

The flop is 9c8cQh. This is a textbook example of a coordinated flop. It is two toned, meaning there are two cards of the same suit and one of a different suit, and is also very connected. This flop connects extremely well with the Button’s range.

Continued below...

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Since the Button can have many suited broadways as well as pairs and suited connectors in their range here they will flop at least a pair or a draw here a vast majority of the time. Against less skilled opponents that will fold a lot of their less than top pair hands or call with a much wider range of hands preflop, continuation betting here can be profitable.

Given that our raise came from Early Position we do have a very narrow, strong range and usually do want to c-bet a majority of flops. However, against tough opposition that will raise and float with a robust range of hands a continuation bet here fails far too often to be profitable.

If there were a spade on the board we could make a better case for betting here as a lot of the Button’s range is potentially vulnerable to being two barreled. Hands like flush draws, TT/JJ/T9s all would have a tough time calling bets across multiple streets. In this situation with no significant back door draws and just ace high with an inside straight draw, we just can’t make a profitable continuation bet here.

Checking is the best play.

How would you play it?
Share your answer in the comments below!


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