Poker Quiz! A♣K♦ Facing a Turn Bet, what do you do?

AK-Facing-a-Turn-Bet


DECISION POINT:
In a loose $1/$2 cash game both Early Position players and MP2 limp and you raise to $18 from the Hijack with A♣K♦. Action folds to the limpers and the UTG and MP2 players call. You bet $24 on the checked K♥9♠4♣ flop, UTG calls, and MP2 folds. The turn is T♠ and your opponent bets $50. Action is on you, what do you do here?

PRO ANSWER: We are playing a loose, low stakes $1/$2 cash game with multiple players limping preflop and often seeing the flop. We are dealt AcKd in the Hijack. The UTG player open limps and is called by UTG+1 and MP2.

Our AK is way too strong to just call with here and plays far better against only 1-2 opponents. Typically when raising over limpers you want to raise whatever the standard opening raise size is for the table plus 1 big blind per limper. So, for example, if the standard open were $6 then we would raise to $12 by adding $6 dollars total to our total raise, or $2 dollars additional for each limper. In this particular game the standard preflop raise amount is a bit larger given how frequent players are calling preflop and as a result we raise to $18 total. Only the original UTG limper and MP2 call.

The flop is Kh9s4c. We flop top pair, top kicker and both opponents check. This is a great board for us. Even though 99/44 and even K9s are potentially in our opponent’s range, they are limp/calling with a very wide range of hands that we are likely significantly ahead of. With a stack to pot ratio (SPR) of less than 3 we are very comfortable getting money in now. Bet sizing of around 40% of the pot is a good default to use against 2 opponents, so we bet $24 and only the UTG player calls.

The turn is the Ts and much to our surprise the UTG player leads out for $50. What are the main reasons that our opponent would bet into us here? It is possible that they have a made hand but with the Ts bringing in multiple potential draws they fear that a potentially dangerous river card could fall if we check behind. The UTG player may also bet here if they pick up additional equity in the form of either a made hand or a draw. In either case our AK here is too strong to fold given their range still has a lot of hands we beat. Given we are still likely ahead, the main debate is between just calling and moving all-in.

Continued below...

If our opponent is on some sort of semi-bluff such as JT/QT or As4s, then calling the turn potentially opens up an opportunity to bluff the river when they miss. The problem there is that with how shallow the stacks are in relation to the pot, if we shove all-in now those same hands are likely to call our shove and we could get that money in on the turn anyway.

What about saving money when we’re behind by calling? While it’s possible the river goes check/check when we call on specific rivers like the Js/Qs and our opponent has a hand like 99/44, in most situations when we are behind in the hand we’re going to lose the rest of our stack anyway.

Considering that we’re unlikely to save money when behind by calling in this spot, and hands that are significantly behind us will call now but may not put additional money in on the river when they’re behind (such as KQ/KJ/JT/QT and even K8s/K7s/K6s against loose players), it makes the most sense to just get the rest of the chips in now.

Moving all-in is the best play.

How would you play it?
Share your answer in the comments below!


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