A♠K♣ vs a Check-raise, what do you do here?

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Decision Point:
In a cash game it folds to MP1 who raises, you re-raise with A♠K♣. It folds around to MP1 who calls. The flop comes K♥10♥2♠. MP1 checks, you bet, and MP1 raises. Action is on you, what do you do here?

Pro Answer: After our opponent check-raises our continuation bet, we must make a decision for the remaining stacks in this hand. If we choose to call, there will be less than a pot-sized bet left on the turn and thus an all-in from our opponent is likely.

Continued below...

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If we assume that our opponent never folds to further action, this check-raise is effectively the same thing as an all-in bet. An all-in would cost us a little more than $300 in addition to our c-bet. The total pot will be around $800. Therefore, we need to have at least 300/800 or ⅜ equity or around 38% equity to continue profitably.

Against a reasonable hand range that includes sets, some broadway flush draws, open-ended straight draws, pocket aces and other AK hands, we only have around 32% equity.

In order for us to have enough equity to continue, our opponent would need to be taking this action with worse one pair hands than ours, such as KQ, or with pure bluffs.

Against an unknown opponent, we should not assume they will make this type of check-raise in a 3-bet pot with either type of hand.

Therefore, despite having top pair top kicker, folding is the best play.

What would you do here?
Share your answer in the comments below!

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