A♣Q♣ on the Turn, what do you do here?
DECISION POINT: In a $1-2 cash game you raise preflop from Under the Gun (UTG) with A♣Q♣ and get 5 callers. The flop comes J♣9♥3♣. The Big Blind checks, and you bet. A Middle Position Player (MP1) calls and the Big Blind calls. Everyone else folds. The Turn card is the 8♦. The Big Blind checks and action is on you. What do you do here?
PRO ANSWER: We raised preflop and bet out into 5 opponents on the flop with our nut flush draw and we were called in two places.
The turn card has given us additional outs as now any ten makes us a straight. Given how many opponents saw this flop and turn, a semi-bluff bet is less likely to win the pot uncontested.
However, since our opponents’ remaining stacks are significantly less than the size of the pot, we will often have to call a bet on the turn. Betting out and putting our opponents all-in gives us some additional fold equity that we would not have if we check.
Since we likely have 12 outs on average, we only need our opponents to fold a very small percentage of the time to make this a profitable situation overall. By playing our hand aggressively, we combine our draw’s equity with fold equity to create a profitable situation for ourselves.
Due to the stack sizes on the flop, checking with the intention of check-raising all-in is often a better play. This would maximize our fold-equity. However, as played on the flop, moving all-in on the turn is the best play.
We must be willing to sometimes play big draws aggressively and this hand is a good example.
Moving all-in is the correct play.
How would you play it?
Share your answer in the comments below!
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