A Big Draw with J♠3♠, what do you do here?
DECISION POINT: In a Tournament, two Under the Gun players and a Middle Position player limp into the pot. You complete from the Small Blind with J♠3♠. The Big Blind checks and five players see the T♠8♠6♦ Flop. It checks to UTG who bets. UTG+1 folds, MP2 calls, you call, and BB folds. Turn comes 9♥ and action is on you. What do you do here?
PRO ANSWER: Whenever we have a big draw, we should consider whether attempting to create fold equity through aggression will be profitable.
Maximizing fold equity with either an open-shove or a check-shove can often both be profitable lines, but will vary in effectiveness with stack depth and hand ranges.
We have a somewhat borderline stack in this hand, meaning that if our stack was any smaller we would have significantly reduced fold equity by check-shoving, and open-shoving the turn could sometimes be a viable play. Any larger of a stack and open-jamming is far less attractive from a risk-reward standpoint.
The fact that the pot is 3-way tips our decision toward check-shoving or check-calling being more profitable than open-shoving.
That said, one very important factor here is MP2’s hand range. We block many of the non-7x and non-9x hands in MP2's range. They are less likely to have Jx hands and spade draws because of our hand, which makes it more likely they have a strong made hand on the turn.
Semi-bluffing with so many outs is often profitable, but with 2x pot left in stacks and these ranges, check-calling or check-shoving depending on the action will show a higher EV than open-shoving.
Checking is the best play.
How would you play it?
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