DECISION POINT: In a live $2/$4 cash game action folds to the Middle Position player who limps. Next to act, MP2 raises to $20, the Hijack calls, and you call from the Button with 7♦6♦. The Small Blind raises to $70, MP2 calls, and you call. The Small Blind bets $175 on the 9♠6♥8♥ flop, MP2 raises to $1,000, and action is on you.

What do you do here?

PRO ANSWER: We are playing in a $2/$4 cash game with $600 (150BBs) and several opponents have us covered with larger stacks. We are dealt 7d6d on the Button and action folds to MP1 who limps. MP2 makes an isolation raise to $20 (5BB), the Hijack calls, and action is on us.

We’re in position and are deep stacked in a multiway pot holding a speculative hand and facing a call for less than 5% of the effective stack. This is a very profitable situation based on those factors alone, so we make the call. Next to act, the Small Blind raises to $70 and everyone but MP2 (the original limper) folds.

The isolation raise from the Small Blind represents a much more significant portion of our stack, nearly 10% of our total chips, however there are several factors that make calling this reraise a profitable play. The pot already contains $188, so we are getting immediate pot odds of nearly 4:1. We are also closing the action and are guaranteed position for the remainder of the hand. If the Small Blind had used a much larger raise size than 5x the big blind we could potentially fold here, however the odds to continue with a speculative hand are much too compelling so we call.

The flop is 9s6h8h and the Small Blind continuation bets for $175. MP2 raises to $1,000, which is enough to put both us and the Small Blind all-in, and we have a decision to make with $530 remaining in our stack. When we are faced with an all-in situation and likely behind, the next step is to calculate outs and determine if we have the proper pot odds to continue.

Depending on the specific hands held by the Small Blind and MP2 we could easily have somewhere between 6-13 outs. Including the remaining sevens as potential outs is likely optimistic in this spot, so we can adjust by discounting to between 6-10 outs. We can simplify this assessment and split the difference and assume that on average we have 8 outs. Using the Rule of 4 to calculate our equity based on potential outs when facing an all-in on the flop, the result is an estimated equity of 32% (8 outs x 4). This means we need to be getting at least 2:1 pot odds to continue.

When calculating pot odds it is critical to determine the exact bet amount and pot amount. In this situation, although MP2 raised to a total of $1,000 on the flop, there are fewer chips behind in both our stack and the Small Blind’s stack so we need to make our decision based on those specific numbers. There’s $943 in the middle and we have to call $530 more, so we aren’t quite getting the necessary 2:1 direct pot odds to continue. Given the fact that we are facing 2 opponents who have both taken significant action on this street, even if we assume ten outs on the flop we could easily be facing hands including sets or overpairs with backdoor flush draw that may outdraw us even when we do hit on the turn or river.

It can be incredibly frustrating to find a great spot to continue with a speculative hand on the Button and hit one of the better possible flops for your hand, only to be forced to fold to aggression. While this is understandable and a common annoyance for many poker players, in this specific scenario it is very unlikely we have the best hand and we just aren’t getting the correct price to continue.

Folding is the best play.