Flopped Set of 9♥9♣, what do you do here?
DECISION POINT: In a Cash Game, the UTG player calls the Big Blind and it folds to MP2 who raises. The Hijack and Cutoff call, you call from the Button with 9♥9♣, the Blinds fold, and the UTG player calls. The Flop comes 5♣9♦A♦. UTG checks, MP2 bets, the Hijack and Cutoff fold. Action is on you, what do you do here?
PRO ANSWER: Given that the MP2 player raised an Early Position limper preflop and continuation bet into 4 opponents on this Ace high board, their range is heavily skewed towards big Ax hands as well as a handful of KdQd type combos. Hands such as AK, AQ and AJ really dominate their range.
As a default play, we should raise now in this hand. They are unlikely to fold much of that range given remaining stacks relative to the pot, plus a diamond on the turn often hurts our ability to win additional chips against their one pair hands.
Since a standard raise represents about half of their remaining stack, we can move all-in instead of raising to a smaller amount. Raising to a smaller amount is also a viable option, however moving all-in is our best default play.
If this flop was seen heads-up, they could have many more bluffs in their c-betting range and we could often call this c-bet to allow them to fire again on the turn.
However, given how well defined their range is in this hand along with the fact that they aren't likely to fold much of that range, we can just get the chips in now and jam on the flop.
Moving all-in is the best play.
How would you play it?
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