K♣J♦ Vs a Loose Aggressive Player, what do you do?
DECISION POINT: In a live $1-2 game the MP1 player raises to $10. Player note: the MP1 player has been observed as being a LAG (loose, aggressive player) opening and firing with very weak hands. Action folds to you in the Cutoff and you call with K♣J♦. The Button and both Blinds fold and the flop comes 9♣T♦4♥. MP1 bets $15 and you call. The turn is 9♦ and MP1 bets $30. Action is on you, what do you do here?
PRO ANSWER: We are in a $1-2 game with mostly 100BB stacks. The Middle Position 1 player however, has been playing a crazy loose style opening hands as weak as offsuit connectors and any ace (offsuit as well as suited) while building their stack up to $700 in chips. MP1 has also been consistently firing three streets with much of their range. On multiple occasions we’ve seen them show up with hands as weak as ace high on the river.
The rest of the table, particularly the three players to our immediate left, have adjusted to this by playing very tight and only playing premium hands. We’ve managed to build a big stack as well of $850 having hit a couple of big hands.
In this hand, we are dealt KcJd in the Cutoff seat. It folds to MP1 who makes a standard opening raise to $10. Everyone else folds around to us. Typically this would be a fairly straightforward fold. KJo is not really a hand that’s strong enough to 3-bet here and calling and inviting a multi-way pot with a hand that plays much better heads up in position, or better yet heads up as the preflop aggressor, means normally it just finds its way into the muck.
Given our read however, MP1 has an extremely wide range here and the players behind us are playing extremely tight. If we make an exploitative adjustment and call here we are very likely to see a heads up flop in position against a player with a very wide range. We make the adjustment and call and everyone else folds as predicted.
The flop is 9cTd4h giving us two overcards and an inside straight draw. Our opponent bets $15 into the $23 pot. We have 10 outs and potentially the best hand right now so folding definitely isn’t an option. Given how recklessly MP1 has been firing away during the session we have massive implied odds here. If we raise we are in a very precarious position should they elect to continue by calling or raising on the flop, or if we miss our draw on the turn, particularly given how willing this player is to continue with almost any 2 cards. We do make the call.
The turn is the 9d and our opponent bets $30 into the $53 pot. Based on our read of how wide MP1’s range is likely to be we still likely have 10 outs here. With 10 outs we are roughly 20% to hit on the river so to call $30 we have to win $120 on average in this spot. There is already $83 in the pot and since we’ve seen MP1 triple barrel with a wide range of hands it is quite likely we make on average at least another $37 when our hand improves. This means folding is incorrect.
What about raising? When the middle card pairs on the turn it is typically better for the flop caller’s range than the aggressor and if we were against an opponent who might lay down a hand like Tx here to significant turn pressure this might be a great spot to raise. Against a very loose, aggressive player though we are unlikely to generate the number of folds here to make semi-bluffing profitable.
Calling is the best play.
How would you play it?
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