K♠K♥ vs a Check-Shove, what do you do here?
DECISION POINT: In a Cash Game, it folds to you in Middle Position and you raise with K♠K♥. The Big Blind calls and the Flop comes Q♠7♦2♣. The Big Blind checks and you make a continuation bet. The Big Blind shoves All-In. What do you do here?
PRO ANSWER: On the flop, we need to call $138 more to win a total pot of $325, which means we need 138/325 or 42.5% minimum equity in order to profitably call.
Estimating overbet shove ranges can sometimes be difficult, since no hand should be played this way (a smaller check-raise by your opponent in this spot will be more profitable in general).
As a default, in a live $1-2 game, we should assume that this player's hand range consists of sets, some top pair hands, pocket aces that slowplayed preflop, as well as the occasional airball bluff.
Very conservatively and assuming no airball bluffs, their range could look like this:
AA, QQ, 77, 22, AQs, AQo; Weights: AA:25%, QQ:25%, 77:50%, 22:50%, AQs:50%, AQo:50%
The weights are based on how often they play those hands this way. Against this conservative range we have 46% equity. So we should call here even if this range is accurate.
Their actual range is likely wider and includes more Qx hands. If we add these other hands, our equity jumps very quickly and we quickly become a favorite.
Calling is the best play.
How would you play it?
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