K♥K♦ vs a UTG All-In, what do you do here?
DECISION POINT: You are in a Satellite Tournament. There are 19 players left and 18 players will win seats to a main event. An Early Position player moves all-in for a little less than 8 big blinds. What should we do with KK?
PRO ANSWER: In satellite play all prizes awarded are equal. There is no benefit to having a larger chip stack when the bubble bursts since everyone will win the same prize. Therefore, survival takes precedence in the end stages of satellite play.
During satellite endgame play, we should always estimate our likelihood of winning a seat if we simply fold every hand. When that likelihood is high there is no reason to play any hands, even premium ones. If we call this all-in bet, we will be at risk of busting from this satellite during this hand.
At this table, there are three opponents that will be forced all-in before we reach the blinds again. The players in the MP1 seat, the Hijack seat, and on the Button will all be forced all-in during this round of play. The chance that at least one of them will bust before us is very high. This means we have less incentive to attempt to win any additional chips.
In spite of our stack and our opponents stack both being under 8 big blinds, we should fold KK to this bet. If we were by far the shortest stack remaining in the satellite, we would have to win more chips to be likely to win a seat and we should therefore call the all-in.
However, given that 3 players will be forced all-in before the blinds reach us, we should fold this hand.
Folding is the best play.
What would you do here?
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