Middle Set on the Flop, what do you do here?
DECISION POINT: In a Cash Game, the Under the Gun player raises and a Middle Position player calls. You call with 9♥9♠. The Flop comes 8♦9♦10♦. The Under the Gun player bets and the Middle Position player folds. Action is on you, what do you do here?
PRO ANSWER: In a $5-10 NL Hold’em cash game, you flop a set in position against the preflop raiser. They bet out on a highly coordinated monotone flop. What is your plan for this hand?
Most players overestimate the probability of the preflop raiser having a made flush or straight in this scenario. Those hands are certainly part of their overall range, but are far less likely than other hands, such as having one big diamond or one pair hands like overpairs or top pair. You are well ahead of your opponent’s hand range when you hold middle set in this scenario.
In addition, your opponent only has around 60 big blinds to start this hand, so this mitigates any need to exercise pot control.
Given these factors and the coordination of this board, you should not slowplay your set. You should raise and be willing to get it all-in for your opponent’s stack.
Raising allows your opponent to get it all-in with a one card diamond draw, which you are big favorite against. If you call, they may slow down when no diamond hits on the turn.
There is a lot of value to getting it all-in against your opponent’s range. Even if they have a made flush, you have a redraw to a full house or quads. However, much of the time you are well ahead of your opponent.
Raising is the best play.
What would you do here?
Share your answer in the comments below!