Q♦Q♥ Facing an Overcard, what do you do here?
DECISION POINT: In a Tournament where blinds are 1,500/3,000 a Middle Position player raises to 8,000 and you 3-Bet from MP2 with Q♦Q♥ to 25,000. It folds around to MP1 who calls. You continuation bet the 9♣7♦4♠ flop and get called. Villain checks the K♣ turn and action is on you. What do you do here?
PRO ANSWER: We 3-bet preflop with QQ versus a Middle Position raiser and were called. After a continuation bet and a call on a somewhat coordinated board an overcard king falls on the turn and it is checked to us.
Going back to the flop, after our reraise and call, the postflop SPR (stack to pot ratio) was 2. With a SPR of 2 and an over pair our default plan is to get the rest of our chips in across multiple streets. Once a king falls on the turn we have to consider what the best way is to get the rest of our chips in.
Our opponent is highly unlikely to have a draw here, so in most instances they are drawing to between 2 and 5 outs when they are behind. When they are ahead, it’s very difficult for us to get away from our hand.
The dangers of giving a free card are pretty low. If we shove, we are unlikely to get called unless we are beat but a check may induce a worse hand to either shove the river or call when we bet.
By checking back here we keep our opponent’s range wide and maximize our value over the long run.
Checking is the best play.
How would you play it?
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