Q♠Q♦ vs a Turn Check, what do you do here?
DECISION POINT: In a live $1-2 Cash Game a UTG player raises, you 3-Bet to $18 with Q♠Q♦ and it folds around to UTG who calls. Your c-bet gets check-raised on the 4♥2♦J♥ flop and you call. Your opponent checks the 7♦ turn and action is on you. What do you do here?
ANALYSIS: We should bet on the turn when our opponent checks in this spot. We aren't that deep on the flop (SPR = 5), so an overpair is relatively strong on this board even after the check-raise.
Given that we 3-bet preflop, our opponent can expect us to c-bet close to 100% of the time when they check on the flop. If they suspect we may be 3-betting light preflop, the small flop check-raise may be an attempt to exploit this.
Of the hands we beat, they can easily have Jx, backdoor diamonds, the heart draw or various types of air. Against that range we should not give a free card.
Since they regularly have a relatively small number outs, we make the most profit by betting on the smaller side, perhaps around $50 into the $127 pot. We then should not fold if they move all-in over our bet.
Betting is the best play.
How would you play it?
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