Rivered a Straight, what do you do here?
DECISION POINT: In a Cash Game, an opponent bets into you on the river in a multiway pot on a paired board. What do you do with your straight?
PRO ANSWER: Preflop, we should default to calling on the Button here behind multiple limpers with J9 suited. Raising the limpers is also okay, but generally we are happy to play with deeper stacks postflop in position with our hand.
We should also usually check on the turn here. We are rarely getting both players to fold very often (or at all) given the fact that BB check-raised on the flop and UTG+2 cold called the check-raise. If we do bet, we should bet a little more (~$100), so that we set up a natural shove with our stack if we are checked to on the river.
As played, on the river we should shove against this bet. Our opponent's range almost never beats us. Recall that UTG+2 limped preflop, then called a preflop raise in a multiway pot. That takes QQ out of their likely range. They could have 44 for quads. They cold-called the flop check-raise, which means that they almost always have a Qx or 4x hand. That means their range on the river is often something like the following:
44, A4s, KQs, QTs+, 64s, 54s, 43s, KQo, QJo
We absolutely crush this range with our straight. In fact, we only lose to the quads. They really can't have a full house here very often at all unless they are limp-calling preflop with Q4, T4 and 84, which we should not assume by default.
Even if we assume that we fold out every Qx hand with a raise and that we only get called by either quads or 4x hands (trips), we will win when our raise is called 89% of the time! There are many more ways for them to have trips (8 combos) than quads (1 combo).
Shoving is the best play.
How would you play it?
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