Set of 9♠9♣ on the Flop, what do you do here?
DECISION POINT: In a Cash Game, it folds to a tight player in the Hijack seat who raises. The Button calls and you call from the Small Blind with 9♠9♣. The Big Blind calls. The Flop comes 9♦T♥8♥. You check, the Big Blind bets, the original raiser calls, and the Button moves all-in. Action is on you, what do you do here?
PRO ANSWER: Let's assume for a moment that the Button is very tight and has only straights or sets, for a range of TT-88, QJs, QJo. We have 40% equity against that range with middle set.
If we move all-in and the others fold, there will be about $750 in the middle and you risked $285, so you need 285/750 or about 38% equity to continue. Therefore calling will be profitable even when we assign an unreasonably tight hand range to the player on the Button.
When we add more reasonable hands to Button's range (two pair, combo draws), our equity increases quickly to around 50%. If we add the additional players, the money in the pot increases enough to overcome the decrease in our equity.
If another player comes in, we need 285/1035 or 27.5% equity. We'll have slightly over that when we include two pair and big combo draws in our opponent ranges.
Sets are so strong because if they aren't the best hand, they usually still have significant equity against any better hands. In this spot, there's just too much in the pot already to fold our set.
Calling all-in is the best play.
How would you play it?
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