Set of A♠A♣ vs a Check-Raise, what do you do here?
DECISIOIN POINT: In a $1/$2 Cash Game, The UTG+1 and UTG+2 players, both Middle Position players, and the Hijack all call. You are in the Cutoff seat with A♠A♣. You raise and it folds around to MP1 who calls. All other players fold and it’s heads up to the flop, which comes K♦A♦7♦. MP1 checks, you bet, and they raise. Action is on you, what do you do here?
PRO ANSWER: In this hand we are heads up to the flop in a raised pot and flop top set on a monotone board (all three flop cards are the same suit). After our continuation bet gets raised, we have to make a decision for what is likely to be the remaining effective stack.
Many players are overly concerned about the potential flush on the board. Flushes are certainly a significant portion of our opponent’s range, but overall we are still a favorite in this hand. Our opponent could hold hands like 77, AxQd, AK and A7 in addition to the many diamond combinations.
Sets are extremely powerful because they not only beat other strong made hands, but they also can fill up to a full house or quads to beat any made flushes.
This helps our equity tremendously in situations like this one. In fact, against a reasonable opponent range that includes many flushes, we are still a 60-40 favorite in this hand.
Since there will be less than a pot sized bet left in stacks if we call and because a diamond on the turn may kill our action when our opponent has two pair or a lower set, we should move all-in on the flop.
Moving all-in is the best play.
How would you play it?
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