Poker Quiz! Trip Aces Vs a River Bet, What Do You Do Here?

Trip Aces vs River Bet - updated

DECISION POINT: In a Tournament where blinds are 100/200 and stacks range between 90 and 250BBs, the UTG player opens for 2.5BBs, MP2 calls, you call with A♣5♣ and everyone else folds. The flop comes A♥A♦4♣. UTG and MP2 check, you bet 7BBs, and only UTG calls. The turn is the K♦. UTG checks, you bet 16BBS, and UTG calls. The river is the Q♠, and UTG shoves all-in for 24BBs total.

Action is on you, what do you do?

PRO ANSWER: In this hand, we flopped trips with a bad kicker and bet both the flop and turn. Our opponent, after check-calling our bets, now moves all-in on the river. We are getting over 3-1 pot odds on a call. In order for a call to be profitable, we need to have at least 23% equity in this hand.

Do we call or fold?

Given that our opponent check-called two streets then moved all-in on the river, we can assign them a range of hands that consists mostly of hands they are betting for value. Bluffs are far less likely given this action. Also, it is unlikely that our opponent is value-betting any hands worse than trip aces. Therefore we are either chopping the pot with another trip aces, or they have us beat with a full house.

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Additionally, there are fewer combinations of trip aces possible as UTG’s range is likely to be much tighter overall given they raised from early position. In fact, if we assume this opponent has a range of QQ+, 44, ATs+, ATo+ (pocket pairs QQ or bigger, pocket 44, or all broadway aces), then we only have around 17% equity in this hand.

We lose the hand around 65% of the time and chop around 35% of the time. Even though we have trip aces, folding the river is the best play since we are only chopping at best and often losing this hand. Folding is the best play.

Folding is the best play.

How would you play it?
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