DECISION POINT: In a live tournament where everyone at the table has around 100BBs, it folds to you in the Hijack with 8♦7♦ and you raise to 3BBs. The Button and the Big Blind call. The Big Blind checks the 8♥8♣5♥ flop. You bet 5BBs and only the Button calls to see the 2♠ turn card. You bet on the turn for 12.5BBs and again the Button calls. On the 4♣ river you check and the Button bets full pot of 50BBs which is half their remaining stack.

Action is on you, what do you do here?

PRO ANSWER: In this hand we raised from the Hijack seat preflop with a suited connector and flopped trips on a board with a flush draw. We make bets on both the flop and turn and get called both times by the player on the Button. The river does not complete the flush draw and our opponent makes a pot-sized bet after we check.

Since the flush draw did not come in, there are a fair number of combinations of missed flush draws in our opponent’s range. Our hand will win against their range often enough to rule out folding as an option, but what about calling versus raising?

Whenever we consider raising on the river, it’s a more complicated decision than simply comparing our hand to our opponent’s range to see whether or not it’s ahead at the moment. It’s essential to compare our hand to the range of hands our opponent will call our raise.

In this scenario, if we reraise all-in (the only logical raise size) and our opponent calls, what type of hands will they show? Are there enough worse hands in the Button’s range to make raising a profitable play?

Many of the hands that we beat in the Button’s range are missed flush draws. Since it’s likely a competent opponent would fold any of their missed flush draws facing a raise on this river, we are unable to extract any further value by raising. There aren’t many made hands in the Button’s range worse than three 8s that will call a raise on this river.

Hands like 86, or more rarely a big overpair, are most of the hands that our range will get value from when we raise on this river and get called by worse hands. The hands that will call a raise and are head include trip eights with a better kicker, full houses, and straights. Given that there are more hand combos in the Button’s range that beat us here than combos we will get value from in this scenario, raising will not be profitable in the long run.

That leaves calling as the only viable option. Calling will show a profit against our opponent’s range in this spot.

Calling is the best play.