Turned a Straight with J♥10♥, what do you do here?

Turned Straight with J10-updated 7-2019-optmzd.gif


DECISION POINT:
Preflop UTG+2 calls, MP1 calls, you call with J♥10♥, the Small Blind calls, and the Big Blind checks. The flop comes K♥J♠9♥. It checks around to you and you make a pot-sized bet. The blinds fold, UTG+2 calls, and MP1 folds. The turn is the Q♣. UTG+2 goes all-In for almost 5x the pot. Action is on you, what do you do?

PRO ANSWER: Given that our opponent has significantly overbet the pot, we must assign them a very narrow hand range by default. In other words, our opponent is far less likely to hold hands that are bluffs or semi-bluffs on this turn card. An unknown opponent is very unlikely to take this action without a T, making them a straight.

Assuming that our opponent would play T9s, T8s, TT, JTs, JTo, QTs, KTs, ATs and ATo in this way, we can see that there are more combinations of straights that we are tied with compared to the number of hands that beat us (ATs and ATo). Additionally, we can hit any heart on the river to scoop the pot.

However, we must take into account pot odds to determine whether a call is profitable. In this case, we are considering calling $148 to win what will be a total pot of $326 after our call. To know how much equity we need to call profitably, we take 148/326 to yield .454. This means we need 45.4% equity to continue.

Using a hand equity calculator and the estimated range of our opponent, we find that we have 46% equity in this hand! Although this is very close, we do have enough equity to make this call profitably. If we believe our opponent would ever make this play with any non-straight hands (hands that do not contain a T), this call would be even more profitable.

As a general rule, having a redraw significantly adds to our equity in situations where we would otherwise be chopping. In fact, if we did not have the heart redraw in this hand, this would be a clear fold.

However, we should call here.

How would you play it?
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