Poker Quiz! Turned a Big Draw, What Do You Do Here?
DECISION POINT: In an online Tournament where blinds are 300/600 with a 600 big blind ante, a Middle Position player raises to 1200 and it folds to you on the Button with A♦J♦. There are 3 players remaining until the money bubble. You raise to 3000 and everyone else folds except for the MP player who calls. On the 10♦7♦Q♠ flop, the MP player checks, you bet 5000 and your opponent calls. The turn is the 9♣ and the Middle Position player checks.
Action is on you, what do you do here?
PRO ANSWER: Three players away from the money bubble in an online tournament, you reraise a 2BBs open from MP1 to 5BBs with AJ suited on the Button. You started the hand with around 40BBs and have MP1’s 30BBs stack slightly covered. The MP1 player calls your 3-bet and you flop a huge combo nut straight/nut flush draw.
MP1 check/calls your 8.5BB c-bet and the 9 of clubs comes on the turn, giving you even more outs to this massive draw. MP1 checks to you.
This is a good opportunity to execute a turn second barrel all-in with your big draw. As the last aggressor preflop we maintain the equity advantage and this flop texture connects very well with the likely 3-betting range in this scenario. We’ve also continued to leverage this equity advantage by sizing up our c-bet on the flop. Even though our opponent chose to continue on this highly coordinated flop texture, there are still strong factors that favor aggression again on the Turn.
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Given that there are only three players to go until the money bubble, an all-in shove should create increased fold equity given the threat to MP1’s tournament life. Even though we don’t have a made hand yet, we still have a tremendous amount of equity and interfere with many combos in MP1’s range that could be ahead right now. Firing a turn second bullet here should be able to cause a fold a reasonably high percentage of the time.
Big draws are ideal hands with which to make these sorts of moves, as you can still win by hitting your hand on the river the times when your opponent does not fold. Since this move threatens their tournament life, you will often get folds from many of the one-pair hands in their range. Note the importance of bet sizing when planning ahead for future streets. On the flop, we bet around 2/3 of the pot in order to set up a logical turn shove sizing of slightly less than the pot. Had the flops sizing been smaller at around ⅓ the pot, we would have more than the pot left in effective stacks.
These are the types of plays that winning tournament players are willing to make on the bubble. Winning players may sometimes lose their stack on the bubble due to aggressive play, but when they cash, they tend to have larger stack sizes that can propel them to deeper runs and more final tables.
Moving all-in as a semi-bluff is the best play.
How would you play it?
Share your answer in the comments below!
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