Turned Top Set, what do you do here?
Decision Point: In a Cash Game, it folds to you in MP1 with K♥K♠ and you raise. The Blinds call. The Flop comes 9♣2♥6♣. The Blinds both check and you bet. Both Blinds call. The Turn is the K♣. The Small Blind bets and the Big Blind calls. Action is on you, what do you do here?
Pro Answer: We raised preflop and got two callers from the Blinds. After continuation betting with our KK on the flop, both opponents called.
The turn made us top set and simultaneously completed a possible club flush draw. The player in the Small Blind bets out and the Big Blind calls.
When deciding our best course of action, we should always take into account our best estimate of our opponent’s range of hands. In this case, we were called by both players on the flop with a flush draw present.
The player in the Small Blind is representing a flush by leading out on the turn. Flushes are a part of the Big Blind's range as well. Overall, it is likely that at least one of our opponents has us beat at the moment, therefore raising is not the most profitable choice.
We must also analyze whether or not it is profitable to call. One of the reasons sets are such strong hands is their ability to redraw to full houses or quads. We have ten outs to improve on the river (any 9, 6, 2 or K). We will make a full house or quads around 20% of the time on the river. This means we need a minimum of 4-1 pot odds or implied odds (80-20) in order to call profitably.
In other words we need to be sure to win at least 4 times our turn call amount.
We are considering calling $100 to win a $380 pot. That means if we win on average more than just an additional $20 during river play when we hit our full house or quads, we can call on the turn profitably. Since one or both of our opponents are likely to hold a flush, we can expect to win far more than this amount when we hit our hand on the river.
The best course of action is to call the turn, with the intention of putting in additional chips on any 9, 6, 2 or K river cards and folding to any standard-sized bets on all other rivers.
How would you play it?
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