DECISION POINT: You are in a daily tournament with a mix of solid and recreational players. The blinds are 4,000/8,000 with a 8,000 big blind ante and most of the stacks at the table are around 40BBs. Action folds to you on the Button with A♦8♣, you raise to 18,000 and the Big Blind calls. Your opponent checks the A♠2♠3♥ flop and action is on you. What do you do here?

PRO ANSWER: We are approaching the later stages of a daily tournament at a table featuring a mix of good and recreational players. The blinds are 4,000/8,000 with an 8,000 big blind ante. We start the hand on the Button with almost 40 big blinds and most of the other stacks around the table have a similar stack.

We are dealt A♦8♣ on the Button and action folds to us. A8 offsuit is in our default first-in opening hand range from the Button so we make a table standard open to 18,000 chips. The Small Blind folds and the Big Blind calls. The flop is A♠2♠3♥ and the Big Blind checks.

This is a spot where most players will blindly continuation bet without a second thought. Against players who don’t defend the Big Blind with appropriate aggression, c-betting 100% by default is an appropriate play. Against tougher opponents it’s crucial to ask yourself a few questions before deciding to fire a c-bet.

First, what is our relative hand strength versus our perceived range? When we continuation bet on this board we are representing an Ace, and our specific hand is one of the worst Ax hands in our range. Consequently, when we bet on this flop and get action our opponent is proceeding with the assumption they have significant equity and are facing the specific type of hand we are actually holding in this spot.

Second, how many streets of value is our hand worth? Our goal is to determine how many streets we can bet while still being able to get value from worse hands in the Big Blind’s range. Our hand could easily get called on two streets and still be ahead at showdown. However, if we were to fire the flop, turn, and river it’s hard to imagine the Big Blind calling all 3 streets with many hands worse than A8o. Additionally, we don’t have any significant draws or backdoor draws that make it more viable to fire all three streets when we pick up additional equity. If we had Ah8h here for example, there are many more ways to improve and potentially fire three bullets.

Lastly, is it important that one of the streets of value is the flop? If the flop were 8♠2♠3♥ there would be more value to betting, as we would prefer to get folds from JT/QT type hands that have 6 outs on the flop but are unlikely to call a continuation bet.

The additional incentive to bet on specific board textures targets the portions of an opponent's range with potential future equity to fold at a higher frequency than optimal, often referred to as Equity Denial. On this specific board texture it’s highly unlikely we are getting a flush draw to fold. While some occasional 4x/5x that have equity might fold, those hands make up a very small portion of the overall Big Blind defense range.

Through the use of a solver we can see just how close this decision is, with the output dictating a small c-bet 48% of the time and checking 52% of the time. With the exception of c-betting a sizing that is too large, there really isn’t an “incorrect” play here. To maintain your edge against tough opponents and extract maximum value from opponents you have outclassed, it’s critical to analyze c-betting situations effectively. Most players just continuation bet without a second thought when in late position on Ace high low card flops.

This is a spot where sometimes checking, especially against players who might aggressively barrel the turn and river when we show a little bit of weakness, can really enhance our overall EV in tournaments.

Betting small and checking are both correct plays.