DECISION POINT: In a live $5/$10 cash game the player in the Hijack raises to $30 preflop, you reraise to $100 with A♦J♦ from the Cutoff, and only the Small Blind makes the call. The Small Blind checks the T♦5♠7♦ flop, you continuation bet $150, your opponent raises to $450, and action is on you.

What do you do here?

PRO ANSWER: We are 6-handed in a $5/$10 cash game and the player in the Hijack seat makes the standard table raise to $30. In Late Position with AJs we have a hand that is strong enough to 3-bet and we are likely ahead of many hands in what should be a fairly wide first-in range from the Cutoff. We raise to $100 and only the Small Blind calls. The flop comes T♦5♠7♦.

We have a relatively strong draw, holding the nut flush draw with two overcards on the flop. Once our continuation bet is check-raised, we must estimate both the chances of hitting on future streets and the likelihood of inducing our opponent to fold to an all-in bet.

Given we have two overcards and a backdoor straight draw, we can increase our number of estimated outs beyond the standard 9 outs for our flush draw. Our overcards are not always clean outs, so we can discount the additional outs from 7 (3 Aces and 3 Jacks and 1 for the backdoor draw) down to 2, giving us 11 outs total. Using the Rule of 4, we estimate our equity when all-in to be 41% ((11 x 4) - 3 = 41).

Assuming that our opponent never folds to an all-in, we will be risking $870 to win $1410, making the total pot $2,280 (870 + 1410 = 2280).

To calculate the minimum equity we need to continue profitably, divide 870 by 2280 for a result of .3816 or about 38.2%. Since our estimated equity is 41% and we only need 38.2% to continue, moving all-in is profitable even if the Small Blind never folds.

If our opponent sometimes folds to the all-in, the overall situation becomes even more profitable. Given that the Small Blind cold-called preflop out of position and check-raised this flop, we can estimate their range to consist of many big pair type hands, as well as sets and some draws. Many of these hands will call our all-in, however, sometimes this opponent will fold.

Moving all-in with our nut flush draw and two overcards will show a profit in the long run. This eliminates folding as an option. Calling the check-raise eliminates the chance of inducing our opponent to fold on the flop and is a worse play than moving all-in.

As a general rule, you must be comfortable playing certain draws aggressively so that you can combine fold equity (the value in inducing opponent folds) with your draw equity (the value of your hand itself).

Moving all-in is the best play.