A♦Q♦ on the Turn, what do you do here?
DECISION POINT: In a Cash Game, two players limp and you raise from the Cutoff with A♦Q♦. The Button folds, and the Small Blind reraises. It folds back to you and you call. The Flop is K♠4♦7♦. The Small Blind bets and you call. The Turn is the 8♣. The Small Blind bets. Action is on you, what do you do here?
PRO ANSWER: After Villain makes a small reraise preflop, we are calling $10 more to play a $50 pot, so we need to realize 20% equity postflop. This is very doable in position with AQs, so calling preflop will be profitable.
On the flop, we have more than enough equity to continue with our Ace high flush draw. Both calling and raising are viable, but calling will show a greater profit in the long run against most opponents.
Once the Villain bets again on the turn, the likelihood of them having pairs worse than a King goes down. Hands like TT or JJ probably would not play this way, so shoving the turn won't generate a significant amount of fold equity. For this reason we should just call on the turn.
We are getting 3.5-1 pot odds, so we need just over 22% equity to continue. Using any diamond and sometimes any Ace as outs, we will have around 18%-24% equity (depending on how heavily we discount the Aces).
Also, very occasionally our Ace high is good. So it's fairly close, but calling the turn bet will be profitable. If we miss on the river and they shove, we can simply fold at that point.
Calling on the turn is the best play.
How would you play it?
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