Poker Quiz! Bottom Set on The Turn, What Do You Do?

Bottom-Set-Sixes-Turn


DECISION POINT:
In a 6-handed live $1-2 cash game the Middle Position player limps and action folds to you on the Button with 6♥6♣. You raise to $8, the Blinds fold, and MP2 calls. Your opponent checks the T♦7♦6♦ flop, you bet $11 and get called. The turn is 3♣, your opponent checks, and action is on you.

What do you do here?

PRO ANSWER: We are playing in a low stakes $1/$2 cash game with stack sizes mostly around $200. There are no significant reads on any players and we are dealt 6h6c on the Button. MP2 open limps under the gun and action folds to us. With pocket sixes, both limping behind and playing our small pocket pair as a speculative hand, and isolation raising the preflop limper are reasonable options.

If we were at a very loose table where we could often expect one or both of the Blinds to come along even if we raised the limper in this spot, then limping behind is likely the better choice. However in games where we can expect to often be heads up in position, and especially passive games where we are unlikely to be facing many 3-bets after we raise, isolation raising is a better choice. We make it $8 and everyone except the original limper folds.

The flop is Td7d6d and our opponent checks. We flop a strong hand with bottom set, but this is an all diamond monotone board which also has a straight draw present. A common mistake players make is to slow down in these situations. Bottom set is quite likely the best hand now, and in the unlikely event MP2 has a straight or a flush we have 7 outs to fill up or hit quads on the turn and 10 outs on the river if we miss the turn.

Continued below ...

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Bottom set has good equity when behind in this spot and often we are a significant favorite unless our opponent has exactly 9d8d. Our hand also benefits tremendously from protection here as there are many hands with a random diamond or 8x/9x hands in MP2’s range that would benefit from a free card. A small flop bet here is often enough to get the job done but in-game we decide to bet a little larger sizing of $11, and our opponent calls.

The turn is the 3c and MP2 checks. Many players will exercise caution after their opponent calls the flop bet on this board. While we should often be more concerned that our opponent has a stronger holding as they put more money in the pot, often this flop call actually means it’s less likely they flopped a flush or a straight. Many non-nut flushes and straights would want to raise the flop here to protect their hand for many of the same reasons we decided to bet the flop.

While 9d8d and AdXd may take a similar line since they are less vulnerable to free cards, these hands make up a very small percentage of MP2’s overall range. Getting check-raised here would certainly put us in an uncomfortable spot. We could check behind and take a free draw to a full house or quads on the river, however our hand has too much value against MP2’s overall range and still benefits significantly from protection.

Betting ½ to ¾ pot here is enough to protect our hand and extract value from their range.

Betting is the best play.

How would you play it?
Share your answer in the comments below!


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