DECISION POINT: In a loose $1/$2 cash game an Early Position player raises to $12, both Middle Position players and the Cutoff call, as well as the Button. In the Small Blind you look down at 2♠2♥ and decide to call, the Big Blind also calls. Seven players see the 2♦5♦7♥ flop and action is on you.

What do you do here?

PRO ANSWER: We are playing a loose, low stakes $1/$2 cash game with most stacks having $200 or more. We are in the Small Blind and get dealt 2♠2♥. The UTG player raises to $12 and gets calls from UTG+1, MP2, the Cutoff, and the Button. Action is on us.

When deciding if we want to call with a speculative hand preflop it’s critical to evaluate if we are likely to have implied odds to call. Approximately 12% of the time we will flop a set, which equates to odds of 7.5:1 against hitting our set. This means that in order to call $12 we need to reasonably expect to be able to win $90 on average when we flop a set.

The pot contains $63 when action gets to us, so we’ll have to win just under $30 on average postflop in order to justify calling with implied odds. At minimum there will be 5 opponents and the call amount represents around 5% of the effective stack.

These factors make it very favorable to assume that when we do flop a set that at least one opponent will have a second best hand and have enough chips remaining in their stack to pay us off. We call $11 more and so does the Big Blind.

The flop is 2♦5♦7♥ and we hit our set. With action on us first to act we’re faced with the decision to slowplay or lead the flop.

Particularly in looser, more passive low stakes games, players tend to be extremely honest with their hands and massively under bluff in multiway pots. We are far less likely to have an opponent continue with a wide range as a bluff in this spot as would be common in many 3-way or heads-up pots.

It’s also important on a somewhat coordinated flop like this one, that we get value out of other hands in our speculative preflop calling range that hit the flop such as 87s/76s as there are many scare cards possible on the turn.

A common mistake in this scenario is to try and bet big enough to “price out draws”. While it may be possible to bet big enough that a single player shouldn’t call with a draw, as soon one player calls it becomes correct for other draws to call.

Additionally we would cost ourselves a ton of value against hands that might call a smaller bet such as 7x or 88 that likely fold to a much larger bet. Sizing of 40% pot bet should be ideal to both appropriately charge draws without driving out weaker made hands than our set.

Yes, sometimes flush draws will hit, however in this spot they are also less likely given one of the 8 remaining outs (the 7♦) will also give us a full house. On the occasion when the flush draw does hit on the turn, we still have 10 outs to fill up or make quads on the river.

This smaller bet allows us to extract a ton of value from one-pair hands that are practically drawing dead.

Betting $30-$35 is the best play.

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