Watch LIVE as LearnWPT Pro, Nick Binger, gives expert commentary for two WPT Seminole Hard Rock Final Tables!
The Final Table Live Stream of the $3500 buy-in WPT Seminole Hard Rock Poker Showdown Championship is Wednesday (4/5/2017) starting at 12:30PM EST (9:30AM Pacific).
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The broadcast will be on a 30-minute delay with hole cards and commentary from your LearnWPT instructor, Nick Binger, and World Poker Tour analyst Tony Dunst.
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DECISION POINT: The UTG player raised preflop, MP2 calls, you call with A♣5♣ and the other players fold. The flop comes A♥A♦4♣. UTG and MP2 check and you bet. UTG calls and MP2 folds. The turn is the K♦. UTG checks, you bet, and UTG calls. The river is the Q♠, and UTG shoves all-in. Action is on you, what do you do?
PRO ANSWER: In this hand, we flopped trips with a bad kicker and bet both the flop and turn. Our opponent, after check-calling our bets, now moves all-in on the river. We are getting over 3-1 pot odds on a call. In order for a call to be profitable, we need to have at least 23% equity in this hand.
Given that our opponent check-called two streets then moved all-in on the river, we can assign them a range of hands that consists mostly of hands they are betting for value. Bluffs are far less likely given this action. Also, it is unlikely that our opponent is value-betting any hands worse than trip aces. Therefore we are either chopping the pot with another trip aces, or they have us beat with a full house.
Given that they raised from early position, the number of combinations of trip aces is lower than if they had raised from a later position. In fact, if we assume this opponent has a range of QQ+, 44, ATs+, ATo+ (pocket pairs QQ or bigger, pocket 44, or all broadway aces), then we only have around 17% equity in this hand. We lose the hand around 65% of the time and chop around 35% of the time.
Since we are only chopping at best and often losing this hand, folding this river is the best play, despite us having trip aces.
Folding is the best play.
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This is Nick Binger from LearnWPT and I’m writing this because I’m willing to bet you’ve asked yourself a certain question at one point or another.
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In this Sneak Peek of Strategy Episode 43 from LearnWPT.com, Nick Binger discusses Playing Draws.
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Want to see an example of how to play a draw when facing a bet on the flop and how to can create fold equity through aggression? Check out this LearnWPT Poker Hand Decision scenario to see how you would play it:
A♣J♣ vs a Continuation Bet, what do you do here?
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In this Sneak Peek of Strategy Episode 42 from LearnWPT.com, Nick Binger answers a Member question from our Ask a Pro feature about whether we should adjust bet-sizing based on Board Texture, and how the idea of protecting one-pair hands on Coordinated Boards can lead to betting pattern tells.
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In this Sneak Peek of Strategy Episode 41 from LearnWPT.com, Nick Binger discusses Implied Odds.
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Bottom Set on the Turn, what do you do here?
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